Numerical Simulation Study on the Scientific and Methodological Aspects of the Brazilian Proposal

In this paper, by using a simple climate model (SCM), a numerical simulation study has been conducted on the scientific and methodological aspects of Brazilian Proposal. First the initial check of simple climate model has been done, then we do some sensitivity studies on timeframes (attribution start and end dates,and evaluation date), and three attribution methods (marginal attribution method, proportional attribution method, and time-sliced attribution method), at last we get the main conclusions as follows: The simple climate model can represent the results of more complex climate model (e.g., HadCM3), and it is thus used to study the scientific and methodological aspects of the Brazilian Proposal. Because of the limited knowledge of science and data, although attributing a part of temperature increase to different GHG (greenhouse gas)emission source, there is considerable temperature increase unattributed to regional emissions. Therefore it is uncertain to make Brazilian Proposal as the method for the responsibility share of future GHG decrease emission. The choices of different timeframes (attribution start and end dates, and evaluation date)and future emission SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) make great influence on the regional contributions to global climate changes, but different attribution methods have only a little influence.

作 者： HU Guoquan DAI Xiaosu Greg BODEKER Andy REISINGER   作者單位： HU Guoquan(Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center Beijing, 100081, China)

DAI Xiaosu(China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

Greg BODEKER(National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand)

Andy REISINGER(Climate Change Office, Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand) 

刊 名： 氣象學報（英文版）  SCI 英文刊名： ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA  年，卷(期)： 2005 19(4)  分類號： P4  關鍵詞： simple climate model (SCM)   scientific and methodological aspects   Brazilian Proposal  

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